Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Western central banks are running out of gold to deliver into the system

William Kaye is back on KWN. Emphasis is mine. This is a must read interview:

Kaye:  “Investors need to be focused on the numbers that are involved in the gold market.  The available feedstock of gold and other precious metals that is necessary to prevent the paper market from being bifurcated from the physical market is being rapidly depleted.

This gets no attention in any of the mainstream media.  It’s absolutely amazing.  You are not going to read about this in the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal or any bank sell-side reports for that matter..
“But the people who do serious work, whether it’s Grant Williams or Andrew Maguire, people like us and a handful of others, the numbers speak for themselves.  Mine production is plummeting rapidly.  If metals prices were, for some bizarre reason, to stay where they are today, roughly 25% of mine production would be taken out of the market.  That’s a staggering number.

2,600 tons of gold were produced and sold into the market in 2012.  At current run-rates, we believe that only 2,200 tons of gold will be sold into the market.  The production numbers have gone down rapidly because of depressed prices.  Those numbers will continue to fall if gold prices don’t rise dramatically from where they are today.

At existing prices, as I said, roughly 25% of production or what is equivalent to the entire junior mining industry today would cease to exist by this time next year.  So, to be clear, this would be an additional 25% reduction from the already reduced 2,200 ton number.  This is potentially a very, very serious situation for the Western price manipulators because supply would continue to disappear at a rapid pace.

You also have the World Gold Council weighing in with scrap production falling on their estimates.  Scrap production has declined 25% alone in 2013.  Well, that’s pretty interesting because none of our contacts in the scrap industry report that their numbers are down anywhere close to that.  So the only way you can arrive at that conclusion, Eric, is, as so many insiders have been telling us, the scrap number is just a ‘plug’ for what the central banks do (in terms of supplying physical gold from Western vaults).

You have to remember that if you look at the World Gold Council reports, there is no line item for gold which is sold into the system that was leased from central banks.  Now this is amazing because we know this occurs.  The central banks themselves have admitted it.

The central banks control more gold than any other entity in the world, so how can the World Gold Council ignore such an important factor in the market?  But they do.  So central bank gold supply into the market is concealed through the scrap side of the business.

Interestingly, Thomson Reuters confirms the World Gold Council’s scrap numbers.  But Thomson Reuters will not share, and neither will the World Gold Council, their numbers with us.  They won’t tell us where their sources are.  They won’t document the numbers.  They will just say, ‘take it or leave it.’  Well, I prefer to leave it.  When someone says, ‘take it or leave it,’ and I’m paying for their service, I’ll leave it.

I just don’t trust people that won’t come clean.  We said, ‘Prove to us that you didn’t just make them up,’ and they refused to do it.  So I am very suspicious of those (scrap) numbers.  And I now side entirely with our sources, and we have more than one, who have said for some time now that ‘They just make this stuff up.’

So this is how they attempt to camouflage what the central banks are doing in the physical gold market.  Well, the Western central banks, as you and I have discussed in several interviews, are running out of gold.  So, naturally the (scrap) number is going to drop markedly because the central banks are cutting back on their delivery of gold into the system because they are simply running out of gold. 

The Western central banks are running out of gold to deliver into the system, and the Eastern central banks and the emerging market central banks are net-buyers and they have no interest in selling.  Take a look at India:  India has a crisis going on.  They bitch about having a current account deficit and their currency being attacked, but you don’t see the Indian Reserve Bank selling their gold, do you?  The Reserve Bank of India only buys gold.

The Indians could mount a very powerful defense of the rupee if they wanted to by simply selling central bank gold.  But they refuse to do that.  India is trying very hard to keep their citizens from buying gold, but all the central bank does is buy.  They never sell.

My advice to the KWN readers around the world is they should take their cue from what powerful entities like the Reserve Bank of India, which is one of the ultimate insiders in this game, are doing.  Don’t pay attention to what they are saying.  They are saying, and in particular to 1.1 billion Indians, to ‘Sell gold.  And whatever you do, don’t buy gold.’  But meanwhile, all they do is buy gold and they don’t sell a single ounce.  They won’t even do it to defend the currency.  To me that’s a very powerful message about where they know the price of gold is headed.”

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