Friday, December 7, 2012

More BS at BLS but Revisions to Reality

In previous months I wrote about some of the pre-election shenanigans in the jobs numbers and a manipulated unemployment rate that did not reflect reality including a blatant omission in new jobless claims in one of the nation's most populated states, California. Today we get more BS but with some revisions that reflect reality


Job Creation Hits 146,000, Rate at 7.7%

So once again, the job number is well below the 200 to 250k needed to lower the unemploymnet rate through job growth. So why has unemployment dipped again? Its the same old story.

From CNBC:

Also, the drop in the unemployment rate appeared to reflect little more than a continued exodus of workers from the labor force.
The labor force participation rate, already around 30-year lows, fell further in the month to 63.6 percent. That represented 350,000 fewer workers.
In all, there were a net 122,000 fewer people with jobs.
"Same old, same old. The government managed to get the unemployment rate down by shrinking the labor force and convincing a lot of people they're better off collecting unemployment benefits or living off welfare than working," said Peter Schiff, CEO and chief global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital. "It's more bogus government numbers."
 Keep in mind that every month that we produce less than 200k jobs we are moving backwards not forward.

And now that the election is over we can dispense with previous month's BS numbers and accept reality:

Previous month's employment gains were lowered through revisions.
The Labor Department's initial report for October showed a gain of 171,000 jobs, but now is listed at 138,000. The September gain of 148,000 was taken down to 132,000.
Much of the November gains came in retail, which added 53,000, while professional services grew 43,000.
The closely watched construction industry, however, lost 20,000 jobs, while manufacturing was flat.
Keep in mind those retail jobs added are low paying, often part time and most certainly temporary holiday hiring. Construction and manufacturing jobs, which were virtually unchanged, are often what leads us out of a recession and into a recovery.

So in today's modern economics we will achieve zero percent unemployment when enough people simply drop out of the labor force and either collect welfare, go on diasability or die. According to the absurd BLS calculations, this will happen in 2021:

Click to enlarge.

Yes, that's just how a ridiculous their methodology is.

Another interesting fact is the demographics of job creation. You can see from the chart below that job growth is primarily 55+ years of age while those 25 to 54 are still losing jobs.

Think for a moment about the ramifications of that. Household formation by young people drives both housing sales and new housing construction. If those 25 to 54 do not have jobs, what does this mean for housing prices, retail sales and savings in the future?

But hey, no worries. When you watch the news you'll just hear the cheery report of lowered unemployment rate to 7.7%! Oh, and if all of this wasn't bad enough, 73% of all new jobs created in the last five months were in government!:


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