Friday, October 26, 2012

Q3 GDP Prints at 2%. More Funny Numbers?

In the second Quarter GDP first printed at 1.7% and then was revised downward to 1.3% which is quite anemic and well within the the fudged CPI variance between the BLS(BS) and reality. Though 2% doesn't sound too bad consider this:

click to enlarge graph

Government consumption, primarily defense spending was .71%! Pretty unusual if you look at the graph above where government consumption was a drag (negative) on the economy. I'm sure, however, this is completely coincidental.  So if GDP was 1.29% without this one time spending and revised down by .4 as it was last quarter we would be left with .89% GDP for the quarter. That would be more than just anemic, but indicative of a coming recession.

But does it make sense? Well, given that corporate earnings reported over the last two weeks have not been good and the seemingly endless announcements of layoffs, it would indeed, seem to make sense.

Oh, and to add to that list of newly unfortunate newly laid off you can soon add another 10,000 at UBS.

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